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View Full Version : All In EV - Does this really work? Please look at your stats and tell me your results



itsavest
12-14-2009, 09:32 PM
Hi,
this year, I run horrible and when I look at my $ EV graph it gives me a reason to think so.

This is my graph of horror over 120k hands at FTP: 56BI over 120k hands below $EV which is about -5bb/100
http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/9837/graphofhorrorftperste12.th.png (http://img687.imageshack.us/i/graphofhorrorftperste12.png/)

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/9837/graphofhorrorftperste12.png

I tiltet very badly during this downswing and played very bad and high variance lines alot. But this should not be interesting here.

But I had another 50k where I ran about 5bb/100 under EV and the last 11 sessions (6k hands), every one of them I was below expectation, and ran almost 20bb/100 hands below $EV.

This thread is no joke or whining, I just don't know if I understand the EV value correctly. It would be of great help for me, if you could look at your $EV statistics and tell me if most of you also have a negative number there over a few thousand hands.

From my initial understanding, the average of all players $EV must be 0. Is this correct and do you think that this is just freak luck or do I misinterpret the value?

Thanks!!

netsrak
12-15-2009, 04:28 AM
Please check this: http://www.holdemmanager.net/faq/afmviewfaq.aspx?faqid=68

and possibly some users are so kind to post their graphs for a comparison?

Patvs
12-15-2009, 08:16 PM
You play 6max only right?? (or also headsup?)

On the longterm your EV difference will be 0.... but 20.000 even 100.000 hand swings (where they grow further apart, or you run extremely under/above EV are normal)

Also your playing style can highly influence the variance: if you checkraise/reraise allin with EVERY proper draw (nut flush draw + a pair) your winnings and $EV winnings difference, will depend on whether or not you hit your draws. For the same reason 6max (where you must make more marginal decisions) comes with a higher variance. (and in SNGs: TURBO and SUPER TURBO come with higher variance)

Tip: change the colour of your EV line to orange. Open holdemmanager.conf
find this line:

<setting name="GraphAllInEv">True,DarkGreen,1,Dash/ <setting> and change it to

<setting name="GraphAllInEv">True,Orange,2,Solid/ <setting>

Tip 2: Change your playing style! There's no shame in having a nonshowdown winnings (red) line that goes DOWN. Yours may be perfect horizontally. But that comes with a high price: your showdown winnings line (blue) goes down. And that's the most important line that should go up. Focus on all the hands that go to showdown, where you simply don't have the best hand.


A pic of (part of) my fullring graph: (to show the beauty of the EV swings)

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/1917/74981044.jpg


http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/20/ev2.jpg