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View Full Version : Can I filter the EV graph for ONLY hands that are AI before the river?



domino66
12-04-2009, 11:31 AM
I was thinking about it and have the following Q about how HEM generates its All-In EV graph. This much I understand. Let's say you're playing HU and all the money goes in ($100 pot) on the turn when you are a 75% fav to win the hand. And your opponent draws out on you so you lose the $100 pot. So my understanding is that your EV graph would represent a $75 uptick in the "all-in EV" line, and a $50 downtick in the "Winnings" line, right?

OK, I want to know how bets after the river are treated. For example, your opponent has a better full house than you and bets $50 into a $50 pot, and you only have $50 left and you call (so the final pot he wins is $150). Your winnings line obviously goes down $75. But does your all-in EV line ALSO go down $50 there? Because you WERE all-in, right? And you were all-in drawing dead, so every cent of that last bet called was an all-in equity of -$50...is that right?

If that's the case, don't you think there's something wrong with this calculation? Everyone loves to post EV graphs to whine about how bad they're running when AI, but if you're only trying to capture the LUCK element, then it should only take into account situations where you're all in pre-river, right? Otherwise any bet/call on the river is going to result in an equity of 0% for someone and 100% for the other person for the amount of that pot....Was I clear in what I'm asking?

Patvs
12-04-2009, 12:14 PM
-1 YES

-2 River situation: if you call an allin on the river and you don't have the best hand, the EV matches the $Won. In your example you lose $75 and your EV is also -$75.

Whether or not you were allin on the river has no influence on EV. If your opponent bet $50 and you called the $50 (and both of you have money behind) the $WON and $EV would both also be -$75.

-3 The EV doesn't take into account: coolers, or situations where you commit 90% of you stack preflop/on the flop with the best hand.... and your final chips go in on the turn/river when your opponent has already hit his gutshot.

domino66
12-04-2009, 12:39 PM
>>-3 The EV doesn't take into account: coolers, or situations where you commit 90% of you stack preflop/on the flop with the best hand.... and your final chips go in on the turn/river when your opponent has already hit his gutshot.<<

So just to be clear: if you each get $99 of your $ in on the flop (with a $1 each behind) and you're an 80/20 favorite. Then he spikes his set on the turn and your last $1 each goes in (and you have 2 outs / 5% to spike your overpair set), your all-in EV graph will show a MINUS $95, regardless of the river, even tho 99% of the $ went in on the flop, right?

Patvs
12-04-2009, 12:48 PM
Yep.. that's the only flaw in EV.
But will be fixed in the future with EV-by-street

csoda
12-10-2009, 11:00 AM
I also thinking about this problem.
When well be in program this finer allinEV calculation?

If u interested i cud help you to implement the technikal definition, or also the programing part of this skill...
BR

domino66
12-13-2009, 10:48 PM
Yep.. that's the only flaw in EV.
But will be fixed in the future with EV-by-street

Any approx ETA for this feature? I need a way to pictorially depict how bad I'm running in those instances where 90% of the money goes in with me as a huge favorite, but the last amount goes in after villain has hit his miracle.