All in EV?

[Biju]

Can someone point me to in depth understanding of this statistic and what it tells you in terms of the graph and your actual winnings. I tried search but can't get to grips with it (an understanding of this would be welcome too!!!!) Been doing some reviews (thanks to Fozzy for sorting out my Graphed Hands problem) and I don't follow some things.

At points the all in ev goes in the opposite direction to my winnings. I review the hands and I was way ahead and lost or vice versa. Seems fine I should have lost but sucked out so winnings go up while all ev drops as I should lose more often than not. However on a couple of hands I was ahead all the way to the river and betting each street and getting a call, yet the last card beats me where I bet and get called again. I have top pair good kicker opponent hits gut shot and my winnings and all in ev drop. So somethings not right and I guess it's my understanding.

[Biju]

I couldn't find it in search but on the same page is an excellent description that expalins some of it. The post with the guy going off in caps answered by RVG is interesting. Does this mean that your all in EV can never hit actual winnings as EV is always less than you win unless you make it back when behind and you win. I suppose short term while accurate isn't so indicative as over long term when a hundred plus of the same situation settles into the average result.

So what are we aiming for with the all in EV line. Even if every all in is a perfect choice your all in ev line will always be below your winnings.

[fozzy71]

Can someone point me to in depth understanding of this statistic and what it tells you in terms of the graph and your actual winnings. I tried search but can't get to grips with it (an understanding of this would be welcome too!!!!) Been doing some reviews (thanks to Fozzy for sorting out my Graphed Hands problem) and I don't follow some things.

Here are some threads explaining Equity and $EV that may help:

http://www.holdemmanager.net/faq/afm....aspx?faqid=68

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=17621

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=20000

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=20994



At points the all in ev goes in the opposite direction to my winnings. I review the hands and I was way ahead and lost or vice versa. Seems fine I should have lost but sucked out so winnings go up while all ev drops as I should lose more often than not. However on a couple of hands I was ahead all the way to the river and betting each street and getting a call, yet the last card beats me where I bet and get called again. I have top pair good kicker opponent hits gut shot and my winnings and all in ev drop. So somethings not right and I guess it's my understanding.

Feel free to post the hand history if you want. If I can't help you understand then I can have the developer explain.

Here is a similar question earlier tonight - http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=21711



I couldn't find it in search but on the same page is an excellent description that expalins some of it. The post with the guy going off in caps answered by RVG is interesting. Does this mean that your all in EV can never hit actual winnings as EV is always less than you win unless you make it back when behind and you win. I suppose short term while accurate isn't so indicative as over long term when a hundred plus of the same situation settles into the average result.

You can run above, below, or at EV, at any given time, and often the lines cross.



So what are we aiming for with the all in EV line. Even if every all in is a perfect choice your all in ev line will always be below your winnings.

You can't really control the EV line. Something more significant you may want to look into is your stats for the All-In Equity %.

If these numbers are over 50% you are getting all in when ahead. If less than 50%, you are going all-in when behind more often.

http://i207.photobucket.com/albums/bb176/fozzy71/HEM/hm-allinevestats.png

[Arizona Willie]

That's an interesting screen shot. What program do you use for screen grabbing that lets you do the sides that way?

[fozzy71]

SnagIt by Techsmith. The same company that makes Camtasia Studio.

http://www.techsmith.com/

[Patvs]

However on a couple of hands I was ahead all the way to the river and betting each street and getting a call, yet the last card beats me where I bet and get called again. I have top pair good kicker opponent hits gut shot and my winnings and all in ev drop.


I'm EV obsessed in analysing my graphs. :) The "problem" you're describing is caused by the "Allin EV" HEM uses. HEM only looks at the EV at the moment an allin situation takes place. Let's suppose two 100BB stacks clash. Size of pot preflop 8BB (Hero raises 4x BB, Villain calls)--->flop 52BB (Hero bets pot [=8], Villain raises to 22, Hero calls)--->turn 156 BB (Hero bets pot [=52], Villain calls. Both players have 78BB invested. On the river, where the Villain hits his gutshot draw (Hero had best hand preflop, on flop and on the turn) the rest of the money goes in. (Total pot is 200BB)

Hero: loses 100BB: EV is -100BB!
Villain: wins 100BB: EV is +100BB


In SNGs/MTTs it's even more complicated, because the WHEN (early stage, bubble situation, already in the money, heads up) of the allin situation has an effect on the EV. See this thread for example. (http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=17437) And if other stacks at the table clash in the bubble, it can effect YOUR EV. (even when you're not involved in the hand!)

[Zizen]

hi,
how far is the developing of the new EV calculations "per streets"? The only software I know that does this "per street" calculations is PokerEV, but it isnt updated anymore (dead project).
Thx

[netsrak]

I'll forward it.

[Rvg72]

hi,
how far is the developing of the new EV calculations "per streets"? The only software I know that does this "per street" calculations is PokerEV, but it isnt updated anymore (dead project).
Thx

We don't have a specific date for it yet.


I'm EV obsessed in analysing my graphs. The "problem" you're describing is caused by the "Allin EV" HEM uses. HEM only looks at the EV at the moment an allin situation takes place. Let's suppose two 100BB stacks clash. Size of pot preflop 8BB (Hero raises 4x BB, Villain calls)--->flop 52BB (Hero bets pot [=8], Villain raises to 22, Hero calls)--->turn 156 BB (Hero bets pot [=52], Villain calls. Both players have 78BB invested. On the river, where the Villain hits his gutshot draw (Hero had best hand preflop, on flop and on the turn) the rest of the money goes in. (Total pot is 200BB)

Hero: loses 100BB: EV is -100BB!
Villain: wins 100BB: EV is +100BB

You can see this is rather unfair EV-wise since Hero committed 78% of his stack when he was a huge favorite.

The problem with this method is it will introduce a lot of selection bias. This has been discussed hundreds of times so I'm not going to start another discussion on it :)

A better way to handle this is for all hands that go all-in before the river, measure the EV per street. I still think this will be misleading since people that play strong hands slowly will have different results than people that play them quickly even if the end result and time of all-in is the exact same but it is something that a lot of people want.


So what are we aiming for with the all in EV line. Even if every all in is a perfect choice your all in ev line will always be below your winnings.

We don't cap the EV values because doing so would have longer term affects that mess up the numbers even if the consequence is having single tourney results that do not make sense - it is possible to have a $EV of more than the first place amount and a $EV of less than $0 even though both are impossible.

For the second example, take a situation where you win an all-in early on in the tourney and then lose all of your chips in postflop play on later hands. You were lucky but you won $0 so your $EV would be less than $0. A similar opposite situation can occur if you win while being unlucky in all-ins.

Roy

[Biju]

So in short, all in EV is bloody complicated!!!

[netsrak]

Am i allowed to quote you for further questions about all-in ev? :)

[zagbie]

hi,
how far is the developing of the new EV calculations "per streets"? The only software I know that does this "per street" calculations is PokerEV, but it isnt updated anymore (dead project).
Thx

I'm really looking forward to such calculations. Are there plans to implement these in future versions?

[The Minder]

Now it's my turn to be a little confused. Not about EV, I'm happy to be at odds with Patvs on this one, but about EV By Street functionality. I seem to remember a discussion (in fact, I think Roy was involved in it) that pooh pooh'd the concept of 'By Street" EV and that there was no/minimal intention of bringing it into HM.

However, at the same time I read posts from people asking for this functionality, or an update on how the dev work is going, and the responses from support seem to indicate that the functionality is indeed being developed.

What's the skinny?

[zagbie]

Now it's my turn to be a little confused. Not about EV, I'm happy to be at odds with Patvs on this one, but about EV By Street functionality. I seem to remember a discussion (in fact, I think Roy was involved in it) that pooh pooh'd the concept of 'By Street" EV and that there was no/minimal intention of bringing it into HM.

However, at the same time I read posts from people asking for this functionality, or an update on how the dev work is going, and the responses from support seem to indicate that the functionality is indeed being developed.

What's the skinny?

Just for curiosity: where do you read the updates about the dev. work?

[The Minder]

Just for curiosity: where do you read the updates about the dev. work?

I'm old... have been in this forum for a while. Try the search feature.

[Patvs]

EV by street....: the people that want EV by street (as I did some time ago) encounter a situation where they commit 95% of their stack with the best hand, then their opponent sucks out on them (by hitting a 1-4 outer) on the river and HoldemManager displays---> : you lost $200 and your EV Diff = $0.

The EV by street enthusiasts WANT to see they lost $200 and their EV Diff was +$190, which seems a more FAIR way to represent this hand. (committing 95% of your stack as a HUGE favorite)

----

EV by street might be added some day as an alternative way to display EV. (no short term plans for that now)
BUT do realize, that the END result of EV by street after playing 100 of these type of hands will be exactly the same as the current EV calculation.


-----



For a long time I thought it was unfair (and I wanted a "EV per street" calculation) until I read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/3rd-party-programs-compatible-holdem-manager/16665-enter-sect-7.html


Summary:

The EV "problem" what some people don't understand:
A: If a player has 0 outs, or
B: the allin situation takes place on the river there is NO EV DIFFERENCE.
C: If a shortstack goes allin preflop, and is called by two bigstacks. And the two bigstacks continue to bet on the flop, turn or river, this situation is treated as situation B. (EV = 0)
Fozzy: "You can't calculate all-in equity if you don't know the hands you are up against."
D: If you commit 99% of your stack with the best hand, but your last 1% goes allin with the worst hand, the $EV Difference will be calculated by your entire stack.

Why "EV by street" (which people who often see situation D want) is a bad thing:

Example:
- you have AA, you raise to 80% of your stack, donkey calls, flop comes K83 rainbow.
- you then go all-in, no matter the flop, because you're committed.
- out of 100 times, 88 times donkey folds.
- 12 times donkeys calls with a set (33/88/KK).
What shall EV by street wrongly do? It shall do no computations for the 88 times where donkey folded--> "no more calculation".
What shall EV by street do the 12 times where donkey calls with a set? "Show that donkey sucked out and that you got unlucky".

So although you ran obviously really good by having donkey folding 88 times out of 100. EV by street focuses on the 12 times where donkey hit his set and tells that you're running below EV.
This is a well-known gambler fallacy. And this is why "EV by street" is biased.

Note: Tristanblue writes "it's precisely because EV by street does nothing to your adjusted-graph on these cases where the opponent folded that it is wrong".

But what if your opponent never folds? Suppose there are two players A and B.
Player A has AA, B has KK. (both have $100 stacks). They commit half their stack preflop and the flop comes AK6. Player B (KK has 1 "out") to win the hand.
If I would play this hand I would always make sure I'm allin on the turn.
However Player X always commits the rest of his stack on the flop and turn *except for one dollar*. And he commits on the river.
Of course, 4% of the time, the rivercard is the case King. Player X's EV Diff is always 0. (because he goes allin on the river)
My EV Diff (I go allin on the turn) is -$4 (96 out of 100 times) and +$96 (4 out of 100 times)
So our EV graph actually looks exactly the same after 100 of these hands.
(-4 * 96 + 96 * 4 = also equals 0!) So the EV outcome (in the long-term) is the same no matter how you play the hand. And no matter which type of EV calculation you use.

[austiger]

I have a bug where my luck in the ICM calculation is not matching the $EV Diff amount. What's going on here? It's off on every hand going back forever and I just discovered it. In this case it is a difference of 47.21 to 47.17, but often it is much greater.

http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o88/austiger1/SNGEV.jpg
http://i118.photobucket.com/albums/o88/austiger1/EVdiff.jpg

[netsrak]

Please zip and mail the original handhistory files (you find them in the HM archive folder or in the handhistory folder of your poker client) together with a link to this thread and an explanation of the problem to support@holdemmanager.net. We will then try to reproduce the problem

[austiger]

Sent.

[austiger]

Bump. Can someone look at this for me? Sorry if I'm impatient but my emails to support in the past don't get replied to so I want to make sure this is addressed.

To clarify, any hand history from any Stars SNG results in a glitch where the amounts from the ICM calculations and the EV diff column are off, sometimes significantly, which makes the red line completely innacurate. It happens on both computers so I can't imagine I am the only one with this problem.

Thanks.

[fozzy71]

It has been assigned to the parsing programmer to be worked on. I do not know where this falls on the priority list, but it is on the to-do list.

[austiger]

cool, thanks foz.

[fozzy71]

NP, that's why you didnt get a reply to your last few emails. It is now assigned to the programmer, instead of the support person (Pat). The programmer doesnt really check/reply to emails. His inbox is more of a to-do list.

[austiger]

bump. Any help?

[wayneking7]

I am having the same problem as austiger. But the problem only exists for me in 1 of my 2 databases. I had heard of this problem prior to creating my second database and checked a couple hundred games without seeing anything wrong. But after just recently creating a new database the problem now exists with different results showing for the same tournament in the 2 different databases.

Where are we on this?

[netsrak]

bump. Any help?
Its not yet fixed. I can't give you an ETA


I am having the same problem as austiger. But the problem only exists for me in 1 of my 2 databases. I had heard of this problem prior to creating my second database and checked a couple hundred games without seeing anything wrong. But after just recently creating a new database the problem now exists with different results showing for the same tournament in the 2 different databases.

Where are we on this?
Stars? Which gametype? Did you import only the hands into the new database or the summaries too? Which HM Version?

[wayneking7]

Stars? Which gametype? Did you import only the hands into the new database or the summaries too? Which HM Version?

6 max hyper turbo satellites on Stars, mainly $88's. Yeah only imported the hand histories that PS provides (no summaries obv as PS doesnt provide them). Imported the exact same files on both databases with different EV results on each. Version 1.11.04.

TBH Holdem Manager is lacking quite badly with all the hyper turbo satellites. It doesnt even do the ICM cals for the majority of buy ins and often doesnt record winning. Been on at u guys for months now about the issues but nothing seems to be happening.

[netsrak]

We made a lot of changes for stars tourney import since 1.11.04. Please install the latest beta http://www.holdemmanager.com/downloads/Holdem_Manager_Beta.exe,
create a new database and import the hands again.

[wayneking7]

Done and done.

Some of the problems seem to have been fixed, including the 1 we are talking about here with the differences between "luck" and "$EV Diff". Although that wasn't a problem for me with my original database and only became a problem when I created a new 1, so it may just be a coincidence it now is ok in my 3rd database.

Have u tried this on the new beta version austiger?

Anyways I will make a list of things that are still not working properly in the Manager Bugs section.

[wayneking7]

I have just noticed this same problem again (EV diff being slightly different to "luck"), but this time with the DON's.

I think the problem only exists when you auto import and use the HUD. Where as the problem seems to go away if you import from a folder after your session.

[morny]

please email the hands to support@holdemmanager.net and also link to this thread and well look into it