EV Calculation mistake?

[Petes]

75$ Super Turbo SNG on Full Tilt.

My only allin was with a half stack, and i was an underdog, it was a 3 way allin, my cards were A8s against an A9o and J9s.

I lost the hand, finished out of the money, and HM tells me that i should won $122.

How is it possible? I had the weaker hand, and this was the only allin situation i took part.

The situation was a big -EV for me i think...

I attach the hand and the ICM calculation.

http://yfrog.com/j4handfj


Payouts
1 $315.00
2 $189.00
3 $126.00

Start EV End EV Diff Player
$55.22 $0.00 ($55.22) gr24
$55.22 $0.00 ($55.22) PetesNX
$124.70 $155.04 $30.34 The Jshock Show
$222.04 $259.39 $37.34 RealFilHelmuth
$102.25 $120.07 $17.82 Everlast Air
$70.57 $95.50 $24.93 Nikamal

SNG EV analysis

Board -

Prizes $315.00 $189.00 $126.00



EV Result Luck Hand Player

$61.26 $0.00 ($61.26) Ah9d gr24

$130.83 $0.00 ($130.83) Ac8c PetesNX

$140.96 $155.04 $14.08 The Jshock Show

$107.33 $259.39 $152.06 Js9s RealFilHelmuth

$105.94 $120.07 $14.12 Everlast Air

$83.68 $95.50 $11.82 Nikamal



hand order Ah9d > Ac8c > Js9s probability 24.9523%

0 stack 590, icm ev $145.22

1 stack 1100, icm ev $206.25

2 stack 465, icm ev $122.58

3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

4 stack 310, icm ev $87.61

5 stack 235, icm ev $68.34



hand order Ah9d > Js9s > Ac8c probability 10.3234%

0 stack 590, icm ev $145.22

1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

2 stack 465, icm ev $122.58

3 stack 1100, icm ev $206.25

4 stack 310, icm ev $87.61

5 stack 235, icm ev $68.34



hand order Ac8c > Ah9d > Js9s probability 18.0472%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



hand order Ac8c > Js9s > Ah9d probability 3.7274%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



hand order Js9s > Ah9d > Ac8c probability 17.2607%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

3 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



hand order Js9s > Ac8c > Ah9d probability 8.7052%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

3 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



hand order Ah9d = Ac8c > Js9s probability 9.2976%

0 stack 295, icm ev $92.29

1 stack 1395, icm ev $234.14

2 stack 465, icm ev $131.74

3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

4 stack 310, icm ev $96.27

5 stack 235, icm ev $75.56



hand order Ah9d = Js9s > Ac8c probability 1.2220%

0 stack 295, icm ev $92.29

1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

2 stack 465, icm ev $131.74

3 stack 1395, icm ev $234.14

4 stack 310, icm ev $96.27

5 stack 235, icm ev $75.56



hand order Ac8c = Js9s > Ah9d probability 0.0000%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 845, icm ev $178.60

2 stack 465, icm ev $120.45

3 stack 845, icm ev $178.60

4 stack 310, icm ev $85.64

5 stack 235, icm ev $66.71



hand order Ah9d > Ac8c = Js9s probability 0.1220%

0 stack 590, icm ev $131.90

1 stack 550, icm ev $125.15

2 stack 465, icm ev $109.71

3 stack 550, icm ev $125.15

4 stack 310, icm ev $77.66

5 stack 235, icm ev $60.43



hand order Ac8c > Ah9d = Js9s probability 0.1866%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



hand order Js9s > Ah9d = Ac8c probability 5.8563%

0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

3 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



hand order Ah9d = Ac8c = Js9s probability 0.2993%

0 stack 196.66666666666666666666666667, icm ev $53.28

1 stack 746.66666666666666666666666667, icm ev $159.66

2 stack 465, icm ev $113.80

3 stack 746.66666666666666666666666667, icm ev $159.66

4 stack 310, icm ev $80.74

5 stack 235, icm ev $62.86



The Hand history:


***** Hand History for Game 16070036573 ***** (Full Tilt)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, November 16, 02:39:58 ET 2009
Table 70 5 Sit Go (Super Turbo) (118146664) Table 1 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 1: gr24 ( $180.00 USD )
Seat 2: PetesNX ( $180.00 USD )
Seat 3: The Jshock Show ( $465.00 USD )
Seat 4: RealFilHelmuth ( $1280.00 USD )
Seat 6: Everlast Air ( $360.00 USD )
Seat 9: Nikamal ( $235.00 USD )
RealFilHelmuth posts small blind [$25.00 USD].
Everlast Air posts big blind [$50.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to PetesNX [ Ac 8c ]
Nikamal folds
gr24 raises [$150.00 USD]
PetesNX raises [$180.00 USD]
The Jshock Show folds
RealFilHelmuth calls [$155.00 USD]
Everlast Air folds
gr24 calls [$30.00 USD]
PetesNX shows [Ac, 8c ]
RealFilHelmuth shows [Js, 9s ]
gr24 shows [Ah, 9d ]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ks, 4d, 8h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
RealFilHelmuth wins $590.00 USD from main pot

[fozzy71]

Read these threads for some examples and definitions.

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=20994&highlight=equity

http://forums.holdemmanager.com/showthread.php?t=7159&highlight=equity

[Petes]

Thanks, i understand how EV calculation work.

In my case, i won more EV$ than i should.

My stack before the allin had a value of ~55$, my chance to win or tie was only 30%. Despite this, according to HM my $EV diff on this single hand is 130.83$, which is approximately my stack value, if i win the hand.
As i didn't have 100%, just 30, i think the EV calculation is bad.

http://yfrog.com/j542785340j

[fozzy71]

I assure you it is accurate. I have forwarded this thread to the developer for a reply.

[Mike chops]

Can you post the hand again but take it directly from the FTP hand history file. I'm not sure where the USDs come from but it won't import.

[Petes]

Can you post the hand again but take it directly from the FTP hand history file. I'm not sure where the USDs come from but it won't import.

I attach the original HH file!

Thanks for looking after!

[Mike chops]

I imported the hand. I don't see where hem says you should have won $120. Looking at the hands tab it shows an EV loss of $61.26.

Your ev is affected by the results of all-in even if you are not involved. Generally it is better for you if a big stack knocks someone else out. Your overall ev loss was $55 for the tournament.