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Rvg72
07-14-2008, 10:49 PM
Download 1.06.01 here for the reports and filters www.rvgsoftware.com/hm/hmtestupdate.exe


Plugging Leaks using Holdem Manager

Article 3: The Fuzz Rule - Folding to Raises

The fuzz rule is basically when you get raised at small stakes up to 200nl or even 400nl you need to be frequently folding unless you have a very strong. In this analysis the filters won’t include 3bet pots or limped pots because that adds a whole different dynamic. Although the theory is obvious and well known the name “Fuzz Rule”, as I came to know it, evolved from the boards.ie poker forum where Fuzzbox was an avid preacher of this advice and rightly so. The following article goes a long way to providing proof that Fuzzbox was indeed giving good advice.

This article from 2+2 shows a study was done of a large sample of min raises which clearly shows that as annoying that they are, they usually have a strong hand and go to showdown a lot so there should be no “Well its only a min raise” excuses. Even though a lot of this is standard stuff I see a lot of HH’s where people call these too lightly especially with overpairs in non 3bet pots.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=131987
And here’s the summary of that thread:

Post Summary:

* Take notes: Always important, but top pair would be easy to get away from if villain only min-raises with sets and you have no other draws. (Now I just got to find the time to enter all this data into my player notes).
* Not best hand: It's probably safe to say that when min-raised, your top pair hand is behind 75% of the time, or will be by the river without any draws. Maybe a little less than that for your overpair.
* No Fold Equity: 99% of the time the min-raiser will go on to see a showdown, so don't try to bluff him/her out unless you have a good read/notes.
* Great Implied Odds: This does give you GREAT implied odds if you have a good draw.

Calling a Flop CBet Raise Results

So if you’re not applying the fuzz rule properly then you should quickly see this in your results. Load the report: Plugging Leaks 03 - Flop Hand Strength. Now, click on the Filter button and then choose "Load" and load up the "Calling Flop CBet Raise" filter. This report shows a breakdown of results in hands where your were the only preflop raiser and your Continuation Bet was raised on the flop and you called broken down by hand and draw strength. You will probably see where you could be losing a lot of money calling with subpar hands in this spot. That is not to say that you should never call a flop CBet raise with a mediocre hand but just realize that anything under an overpair will rarely be the best hand in this spot.

If we simply fold every time to the raise the bb/100 would be somewhere around -950 bb/100. So, in theory, if we lose less than 950bb/100 over our sample we would be making an improvement on folding but some other things should be considered. We should be applying the fuzz rule and only folding the hands that aren’t strong so in reality we should only be calling here with strong hands that have good showdown value. If we have a negative return it means that were not folding enough weaker hands and paying people off light so in fact we should be making a profit when we call a raise here.

In general we should be at least breaking even or profiting from this sample or else we need to review and replay the hands and see where were making our mistakes and work on plugging our leaks. For all future examples where it looks like you have a leak I highly advise scrutinizing your hands for that filter to see where you’re leaks are and to prevent further mistakes in the future.

What do the regulars have when they raise Flop CBet's?

Getting your flop CBet raised leaves you with a big decision. In the heat of the battle it is tough to make a decision although of course you could use Player Analysis to see how often he makes this type of move but that still does not answer the question of what he has in this spot. Before moving forward you might want to go into Options - Misc Options and uncheck the Auto Run Report on Changes. This let's you make a number of report / player / filter changes without having the report be regenerated with each change since on big databases some of these reports can take some time due to the amount of data that needs to be analyzed.

After making that change select the player you want to look at, set the Report to Plugging Leaks 03 - Flop Hand Strength and then edit the Filter. First click on "Clear" and then click on Edit. Go to the last tab in the filter form and find "PFR = False" and double click that. Then find "Raised Flop CBet = True" and double click that. Now you can Save and exit the filter and click "Refresh" to run the report. After it runs click on the Hands tab to sort by that - the largest one will normally be blank indicating that we don't know what he had. For the ones that are known look at the breakdown between big hands or good hands + big draws and weaker hands. Ask yourself how an overpair stacks up against that. For some players it may do very well and for others you might not have a hope. When you see things like this you need to take notes. Repeat this for a number of other players you frequently play against and notice how the breakdown's differ. Also look at the overall Won Hand % for each of these players when they raise the flop cbet.


Results Analysis for Calling a Flop CBet Raise

Now we go back to the 6 max cash data mined database and see how often people are calling CBet Raises and how that correlates to actual results. To do this on your own database simply go to the playewr tab, set the appropriate filters (I am setting # players between 4 and 6, No Limit only, Min 5000 hands with a min date of Jan 2007) and set the Report to "Post Flop Actions". From the second drop down choose "Flop as PFR" and we are looking for Bet Call %. On a huge database this one could take a while - the Post Flop Action reports are loaded with info but they do take some time to go through on big databases. When it does come up click on the Bet Call % to sort it and then look at the bottom right to see the Results analysis. In my database the average breakdown against a Flop CBet Raise is:

Call: 36.1%
Fold: 46.7%
Raise: 17.2%

Here is the winrate breakdown for the ranges of Call% and as you can see, calling here too much is an obvious leak and remember, this is mined data from players with a minimum of 5K hands so this excludes all the really bad players who would drive that 5th group down much lower.


Median bb/100
Call CBet < 28.3 3.07
Raise 28.3 to 33.9 3.12
34.0 to 40.0 2.66
40.0 to 48.1 2.87
48.1+ -1.66


Calling a Flop CBet Raise and going to Showdown

Ok, back to self analysis. Select your player name again and load the "Calling Flop CBet Raise" filter but now go in and Edit the Filter. Go to the last tab and near the very bottom of the More Filters list you will see "Saw Showdown = True". Double click that, save and exit the Filters form and run the report. Take note of the number of Total Hands right away. The amount of hands here should also be close to the total amount you had before applying that showdown filter because when we are raised on the flop, unless someone min raises, we don’t have the odds to call with almost any draw so any hand we call a raise with should be strong enough to get to showdown with almost always. Of course there will be occasions where the turn possibly improves the villains hand or the board turns sour and we have to fold before showdown and times when we call and villain folds the turn but again there shouldn’t be too many of these occasions.

Skuzzy
07-15-2008, 06:30 AM
Just thought I 'd mention that your flop made hand values are incorrect in this report.

My stats for "top pair weak kicker or worse" and "weak/no draw " include 11 hands where i held an overpair on a paired board. Hands like AA on Q88, JJ on T33 etc.
These hands are much too strong to be considered worse than TPWK.

My own data has me winning by a large margin on pots where i hold this particular type of hand.

Also this same grouping includes hands where i held a mid pocket pair and flopped an 8-out straight draw. That's a pretty decent draw in my book. e.g. 55 on 467 flop.

Rvg72
07-15-2008, 11:04 AM
Just thought I 'd mention that your flop made hand values are incorrect in this report.

My stats for "top pair weak kicker or worse" and "weak/no draw " include 11 hands where i held an overpair on a paired board. Hands like AA on Q88, JJ on T33 etc.
These hands are much too strong to be considered worse than TPWK.

My own data has me winning by a large margin on pots where i hold this particular type of hand.

Also this same grouping includes hands where i held a mid pocket pair and flopped an 8-out straight draw. That's a pretty decent draw in my book. e.g. 55 on 467 flop.

I included overpairs on paired boards in the weaker group because they are often dangerous hands to play but maybe they need their own group here. I will fix the 1 card open ended straight draw

Thanks,

Roy

ggeorge
04-08-2010, 02:36 AM
ok, i must be missing something. i am looking at this and not following.

Results Analysis for Calling a Flop CBet Raise

Now we go back to the 6 max cash data mined database and see how often people are calling CBet Raises and how that correlates to actual results. To do this on your own database simply go to the playewr tab, set the appropriate filters (I am setting # players between 4 and 6, No Limit only, Min 5000 hands with a min date of Jan 2007) and set the Report to "Post Flop Actions". From the second drop down choose "Flop as PFR" and we are looking for Bet Call %. On a huge database this one could take a while - the Post Flop Action reports are loaded with info but they do take some time to go through on big databases. When it does come up click on the Bet Call % to sort it and then look at the bottom right to see the Results analysis. In my database the average breakdown against a Flop CBet Raise is:

Call: 36.1%
Fold: 46.7%
Raise: 17.2%

Here is the winrate breakdown for the ranges of Call% and as you can see, calling here too much is an obvious leak and remember, this is mined data from players with a minimum of 5K hands so this excludes all the really bad players who would drive that 5th group down much lower.

Code:

Median bb/100
Call CBet < 28.3 3.07
Raise 28.3 to 33.9 3.12
34.0 to 40.0 2.66
40.0 to 48.1 2.87
48.1+ -1.66



i do not see a report for "postflop actions" let alone the rest of it. what am i missing?

_Loki_
04-08-2010, 08:00 AM
Hi ggeorge

Are you aware that the information you are referring to in this ooooold post is also avaiable inside HM?
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Articles Overview (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/218/Articles+Overview)

#####################
Anyway to answer your 1st question...

In the sidebar menu > click 'PLAYERS'
Between the sidebar & the player summary window is a vertical section & 2/3rds of the way down is 'Report' with a dropdown menu. in the menu you will find 'postflop actions'

FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Players Window Introduction (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/184/Players+Window+Introduction)
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Players Window Filters (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/185/Players+Window+Filters)
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Players Window Main View (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/186/Players+Window+Main+View)
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Players Window Player Analysis (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/187/Players+Window+Player+Analysis)
FAQ - Hold'em Manager Poker Tracking Software :: Players Window Results Analysis (http://faq.holdemmanager.com/questions/188/Players+Window+Results+Analysis)

ggeorge
04-09-2010, 10:00 PM
nope.was not aware. just starting to learn the software and this forum.

thanks for the info tho.

stry67
06-21-2010, 08:28 PM
Ok so I was reading over this, yes I know its old and maybe a problem I'm having is the version of HM I have. I have 1.11.01a.
I get to the part about running a player summary on your DB and its all good. But then the problem is when sorting by column to get the analysis in the bottom right pane. After selecting Post Flop actions, Flop- as PFR and running the report, I have a BET CALL, BET FOLD and BET RAISE column amongst the other columns. Those are the ones I want right? Because I don't see columns such as Bet Call %.
When I click on those 3 columns, I don't get a results analysis and that's the problem.
Could my DB be too small? I only have 145 players over 45k hands at this point.

stry67
07-02-2010, 07:58 AM
/BUMP. Why is there no support for this? :(

_Loki_
07-02-2010, 10:19 AM
To confirm stry67's posts using HM version 1.11.02b with a large database

###
** In the 'PLAYERS (xxxxx)' sidebar
Select: 'Holdem' + 'Cash Games' + 'Post Flop Actions' + 'Flop - as PFR'
Click: 'Run Report Button'
The 'Results Analysis' pane (bottom right) populates only when I click on any of these 5 columns in the 'Player Summary' pane (top):
bb/100, vpip, pfr, 3bet & bet%

morny
07-02-2010, 06:30 PM
Thanks, ill write a bug report for this and apologies for missing the thread :)