PDA

View Full Version : Luck based winnings graph question



Shemp Hain
10-10-2009, 01:01 PM
Okay, here's my question. I primarily play DoN's or Supers where very little if any post flop play is required. My all-in EV is between 55-65 in the early levels and 48-54 in the late levels. My luck adjusted winnings line was $700 below my earnings in 20.80 turbo DoN's. 35 BUYINS IN DoN's!!!!!!!!!! Correct me if I'm wrong but this is horrible luck right? From my understanding the luck based winnings is basically the calculation of all-in EV, which doesn't include all the times one steals the blinds. So if I'm running around 51 percent in the late game and 60 in the early game I should have a winnings line that is running above the luck line, correct? Oh, the sample size was roughly 2400 games.

Thanks for your help.

fozzy71
10-10-2009, 05:49 PM
Could you please post (or email, if you prefer them to be private) some pictures of the graph? If you prefer to email them send them to fozzy@holdemmanager.net with a link to this thread.

What poker site? Pokerstars? Do you request and import the tourney summaries?

Shemp Hain
10-10-2009, 09:09 PM
I had to uninstall the database that had most of my pstars tourney info and reload holdem manager so I only have the last two months on which I mostly played on Fulltilt in the superturbos. I will take a screen capture of that graph and send it.

Rvg72
10-11-2009, 02:51 PM
Hi, you are looking in the reports tab and that $ EV actually isn’t $ EV, it is chip EV. That’s a bug I need to fix because it can be very confusing. For your real $EV you want to be looking in the tourney results tab

Thanks,
Roy

Shemp Hain
10-11-2009, 05:06 PM
What about the luck adjusted red line on the graph. That is for all-in confrontations only right?

Shemp Hain
10-11-2009, 05:15 PM
I know that the report tab isn't showing $EV but I was referring to the all-in percentages not the chips won or lost. That is the only thing I'm concerned with. I checked in the results tab and I'm obviously running like ass but I basically wanted to know that if a person is running at or above 50% overall in all-in confrontations in sng's where little if any post flop play is required wouldn't they automatically be winning more than what the luck adjusted EV graph line is showing due to stealing pots etc...

Rvg72
10-12-2009, 01:18 PM
I know that the report tab isn't showing $EV but I was referring to the all-in percentages not the chips won or lost. That is the only thing I'm concerned with. I checked in the results tab and I'm obviously running like ass but I basically wanted to know that if a person is running at or above 50% overall in all-in confrontations in sng's where little if any post flop play is required wouldn't they automatically be winning more than what the luck adjusted EV graph line is showing due to stealing pots etc...

Hi, not necessarily. If you had tens of millions of hands then eventually you'd be correct since it would trend to that but there are so many other factors. If a short stack pushes into you then your $EV won't be affected much. If you bust out on the bubble then your $EV gets affected a lot more. You can't just look at the % although it often will match your overall "luck"

Roy