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View Full Version : HEM stats - sample sizes



offcentre
09-29-2009, 01:25 PM
I'm configuring my HUD to not display stats that are irrelevant or inaccurate due to the sample size. The HUD pops up after 20 hands on a player, and then each stat has an individual sample size requirement before it shows up. I have assigned arbitrary values for the most part, but actually I'm not sure when each stat becomes 1) an indication of player type or tendency 2) statistically relevant 3) statistically accurate. Is there a resource that provides information on when each individual stat begins to become relevant / accurate? Thanks.

fozzy71
09-29-2009, 02:08 PM
I prefer to leave all hands with a 0 - 20 min sample, but also use the [x] Adjust Color for Sample Size. Some stats require a much smaller sample of hands played to converge, because you have an opportunity to influence that stat every hand. Some stats, like 3bet or 4bet, you are not able to do every hand. You may play hundreds of hands before having 20 or 30 samples for that actual stat, so the HUD will keep those stats dim while other stats like vpip or pfr will be bright much sooner. I believe the colors change from dim to bright somewhere in that range of 25 or 30 samples.

offcentre
09-30-2009, 07:53 AM
Thanks, fozzy. I've been searching the forums, faqs, and google for a while, so I've got the Adjust Colour flag checked, and I'm aware of the overall hands vs. individual instances concept.

I'm really trying to not pay any attention to stats that have no relevance on my HUD or popup. I'm still learning, and I stumble over them sometimes because I'm not sure when they become relevant, as you said, each stat is different.

With so much data floating around, I'd be surprised if someone hadn't at least attempted to figure out the minimum instance sample size for each stat to achieve an acceptable accuracy or relevance, and it's these figures I'm wanting to look at to make a good decision on how to set up my HUD.
Obviously it's common sense, few instances are less relevant, many instances are more relevant, but there must be a threshold where in general, in most situations, the specific stat becomes acceptably reliable, or an acceptable indicator, and then we can apply the common sense approach as well.

Again, thank you. Any help is appreciated, whether you know of any resource, or a good place to start looking. So far I haven't been able to find anything along these lines.

offcentre
09-30-2009, 08:23 AM
Doing some more searching, I found this:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=11024148&postcount=24

which really addresses the point of being anal about stats, and the difference between relevance and accuracy. I was afraid a reply would come along telling me that poker isn't just about numbers, you can't be a robot, so I'm glad I found the post. I guess my final revised question then, is:

"As a learning player trying to nail down the ABC's of poker, as well as how to use a HUD and stats effectively, below which threshold for each stat should I just ignore the figure?" I'd like to set those thresholds in my HUD config so I don't outlevel myself.

Cheers, thanks again.