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zamundin
12-13-2011, 04:44 PM
I recently read a very good article on the Donkr website, about optimal floating strategy: basicaly it says that if villain raises preflop, we flat ip and he C-bets the flop oop, he HAS to continue his aggression at the turn 70% of the time to avoid being exploied by any two cards worthless floating. the aggression must be in the form of

Turn_CBet% + 1.75 x (TurnCheckRaise% + TurnCheckCall%) = 70%

If it's less than 70%, floating with any 2 and betting 100% when checked to becomes profitable. Awesome stat to have on the HUD right?

I searched in the FAQ and the sticky posts in this section but i'm clueless about what to do. I would appreciate any hint on how to start making this custom stat.

The idea is to have a better stat to determine when to float besides the "flopcbet%" and "turncbet%", and i'm a sucker for game theory optimal strategy so i would really like to have this on my HUD. (i saw that it is not possible in the HUD but if not, i'd still would like to have this as "report" in order to study players)

It is important that the TurnCheckRaise% and TurnCheckCall% does not include the times villain is not the preflop raiser, and also the times he decided not to C-bet the flop. It should be only IF villain is preflop raiser and IF villain C-betFlop=True, what is his TurnCheckRaise and TurnCheckCall

I really hope someone motivates
:(

zamundin
12-13-2011, 05:04 PM
Another condition it should meet and i forgot to specify is that it should only include Heads Up situations

TheZepper
12-25-2011, 01:31 AM
Hi zamundin - A man after my own heart - I too am a "sucker" for optimal strategy.

I've written numerous optimal custom stats in HM1 - however, this one is new to me. Can you post the link to the donkr site here for me so I can check out the post? Sometimes the authors of optimal strategy posts don't always get the math right.

However, after making a minor adjustment to your formula (its not exactly TurnCheckRaise% + Turn CheckCall%) the stat looks OK to me.

Might add some optimal stats to HM2 - IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT GENERAL INTEREST ..... if anybody else is truly interested in these kind of stats, let us know by posting here and we'll see what happens ....... Formulas always help ....

Zamundin, please PM me with your e-mail address and I'll send you the HM1 custom stat so you can help me test it out. (Also, let me know if you need some help learning how to use custom stats). Once the stat is debugged, more than likely I'll post it somewhere in this forum.

Happy Holidays!

p.s. Its best to use the term "heads up" only in refernce to a HU game (2 players from the start of hand). When you mean 2 players see the flop, its preferable to say it that way .....

zamundin
12-25-2011, 03:52 PM
:cool:

So glad someone motivated! i was getting the feeling that maybe i posted something stupid.

The link to the article where this formula appears is here (http://en.donkr.com/forum/optimal-postflop-play-in-nlhe-6-max---part-6-533573) it's part 6 of 6 articles called "Optimal post-flop play in NL Hold'em 6 Max " that you can find here (http://en.donkr.com/forum/the-ultimate-poker-strategy-guide-533519)

I originally got there studying PLO but since it was so good i also read some of the NLHE stuff he wrote. Maybe when you have some time you can read the whole series of articles, if you are a "sucker" for gto, you'll love it ;) and probably get a few more ideas for cool new stats.

merry Xmas, happy hanukkah and a i wish you a very happy and above EV new year

zamundin
12-25-2011, 04:13 PM
This is from part 5 of the article, somewhere in the bottom half of the article. I think it is also needed besides from part 6.

"3.1 Modeling barreling out of position

First, let's define barreling. This is simply to keep betting on the next street after you have bet the current street and gotten called (and it doesn't matter whether you're weak or strong). So if Alice raises preflop, c-bets the flop, and then bets the turn, she has done a 2-barrel. If she also bets the river after getting called on the turn, she has done a 3-barrel.

When Alice is out of position versus Bob, c-bets the flop and gets called, it's important for her to have a balanced strategy for turn play in order to prevent Bob from exploiting her by floating with any two cards on the flop (planning to steal the pot on later streets). If Alice checks and gives up on too many turns, it will be profitable for Bob to call her c-bet regardless of what he has, planning to auto-bluff the turn when checked to (for example if he floated the flop with a gutshot straight or overcards), or planning to check down a hand with marginal showdown value (for example, if he floated the flop with a low pair).

Alice can counter Bob's floating strategy with random weak hands by 2-barreling enough on the turn and we'll see how often she needs to do that in a minute). But Alice can't only defend her flop betting range by 2-barreling, since this makes her turn checking range transparent and easy to exploit (since Bob then knows that Alice is always weak when she checks). So Alice needs to mix in some check-calling and check-raising on the turn as well.

The same logic applies to river play after Bob flats Alice's turn bet. She has to 3-barrel/check-call/check-raise enough to prevent Bob from floating the turn with any two cards, planning to steal the pot on the river, or win a showdown with a weak hand that has showdown value (but not strong enough to call both the turn and the river.

We'll use a simple model and a bit of math to estimate how often Alice needs to defend on the next street after betting the current street and getting called. We use our standard postflop bet sizing scheme:


- 0.75 x pot on the flop
- 0.75 x pot on the turn
- 0.60 x pot on the river.

When Alice c-bets 0.75 x pot on the flop, Bob is getting pot-odds (1 + 0.75) : 0.75 = 1.75 : 0.75 on a call. If Alice never check-raises or check-calls the turn, Bob can float a random weak hand with automatic profit if Alice checks and gives up more than 0.75/(1.75 + 0.75) = 30% on the turn. Therefore, if Alice defends against Bob's flop floats by only 2-barreling, she needs to 2-barrel 100 - 30 = 70% of her flop betting range on the turn. We can express this as:

2-barrel%= 70%



This is a mathematically acceptable defense strategy against flop floats, but Alice can make things easier for herself by also check-calling and check-raising some on the turn. This makes it more expensive on average for Bob to steal the pot (which means Alice can get away with less 2-barreling). It also makes Alice's turn checking range much harder to read, since she isn't always ready to give up the pot when she checks.

Those times Alice 2-barrels the turn and Bob folds his random flop float, his loss is limited to his flop call of 0.75 x flop-pot. Now, assume Bob always bets his floats as a turn bluff when Alice checks to him. His plan is to fold to a turn checkraise, and give up his steal attempt if Alice check-calls Bob is then prepared to check down the hand and lose a showdown). Bob's turn bet is 0.75 x turn-pot, and the turn-pot is 1 + 0.75 + 0.75 = 2.5 x flop-pot. Bob then invests 0.75 x 2.5 = 1.875 x flop-pot with his turn bluff.

Then his total risk for trying to steal the pot with a flop float + turn bluff is (0.75 + 1.875) = 2.625 x flop-pot. When Alice check-calls or check-raises the turn, Bob's expense is then 2.625/0.75 = 3.5 x higher than when Alice 3-bets (so that Bob only loses his flop call of 0.75 x flop-pot).

To make Bob's steal attempt break even, the following equation needs to be satisfied:

2-barrel%(-0.75P) + check-continue%(-2.625P)
+ (100 - 2-barrel% - check-continue%)(+1.75P) = 0



In words:

The amount Bob loses by floating the flop and getting 2-barreled (-0.75P each time), plus the amount he loses by floating the flop and getting his turn bluff check-called or check-raised, plus the amount he makes when his turn bluff succeeds, should sum to zero. That makes his float flop + bluff turn strategy break even, which is what Alice's wants her turn strategy to do for her.

We simplify this equation to get:

2-barrel%(-0.75P) + check-continue%(-2.625P)
+ 175P - 2-barrel%(1.75P) - check-continue(1.75P) = 0



2-barrel%(-0.75P - 1.75P)
+ check-continue%(-2.625P - 1.75P) + 175P = 0



-2.5P x 2-barrel% - 4.375P x check-continue% + 175P = 0



2.5P x 2-barrel% + 4.375P x check-continue% = 175P



P x 2-barrel% + 1.75P x check-continue% = 70P



And the above equation for Alice's turn defense strategy against flop floats can be generalized to:

2-barrel% + 1.75 x check-continue% = 70%



The term check-continue is the label we use for all of Alice's check-calling and check-raising. We have here assumed that Bob always loses the hand when he bets the turn and Alice doesn't fold. Note that we are ignoring the equity of Bob's hand, and we assume that he never wins a showdown after Alice check-calls the turn. Bob is always behind when this happens, he never improves to the best hand on the river, and he never bluffs the river. These are simplifying assumptions, but this is fine when we're modeling a situation. Also, keep in mind that sometimes Alice bets or check-calls the worst hand, and then she draws out on the river. So as a first approximation we can assume that these two effects cancel out.

We'll now put the above equation to work by studying an example scenario heads-up with the raiser out of position on a dry flop. On these flops we'll often get a call-down scenario where the raiser c-bets any two cards on the flop, and then the preflop flatter sits in position with a medium/weak range of mostly one pair hands and overcards. usually the caller is not strong enough to raise anywhere along the way, so he will often be faced with a call/fold decision on every street those times the raiser fires multiple barrels.

What typically happens when two good, thinking players clash in this type of scenario is that both will be playing wide ranges on the flop (the raiser c-bets a lot and the player in position flats a lot). Then both players drop many (but not all) of their bluffs, floats and weak one pair hands on the turn, and then again on the river. And both players are trying to prevent the other player from bluff-barreling/floating profitably with any two cards on any street."

kamachos
12-26-2011, 05:51 PM
Might add some optimal stats to HM2 - IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT GENERAL INTEREST ..... if anybody else is truly interested in these kind of stats, let us know by posting here and we'll see what happens ....... Formulas always help ....


Truly interested...This will make me upgrade to HM2 for sure, please let me know where else do I need to post or who do I need to bug for this to be taken seriously..HEM seriously lacks some in depth/optimal stats and users are very limited in their abilities unlike with PT3..