PDA

View Full Version : Tourney EV$?



aaxxzz
08-17-2009, 06:54 AM
I play super turbos on Full Tilt and after a total of almost 6000 sngs, my EV$ ROI (3.9%) is considerably different from my actual ROI (6.4%). Am I just running incredibly hot over 6000 sngs or is the EV$ calculation just not very accurate? Shouldn't my actual ROI and EV$ ROI converge as I play more tourneys? Anybody else have stats like this?

netsrak
08-17-2009, 08:11 AM
EV is always a point of discussions.

I just give you the last statement from Roy:

> When we worked on EV implementation we made a decision that allow for
> "impossible" EV values - this was after consulting with many stat experts.
> Forcing EV to be no lower than $0 and no higher than the win amount would
> cause a bias issue over larger samples so we did not include any caps.
>
> To imagine a case where you would have a negative EV imagine a tourney where
> you won an all-in initially where you were an underdog. You are now "lucky"
> as far as the overall tourney. On the next hand you call an all-in bet on
> the river and lose. You won $0 in the tourney and you were still lucky so
> you have a negative EV.
>
> I know it might not make a lot of sense when you look at an individual
> tourney but over larger samples (which is the main purpose of the EV line)
> capping the values would make the results incorrect.
>
> Roy

aaxxzz
08-17-2009, 06:18 PM
I did a search and most of the threads seem to be about EV for cash games. There don't seem to be many for tourneys. I understand (sort of) how it's calculated and the theory behind it but I'm just wondering how much I should be paying attention to this statistic. It seems like over 6000 games the EV ROI and actual ROI should be pretty similar, or do I need an even larger sample size?

netsrak
08-18-2009, 03:25 AM
I'll forward it to Fabio for a statement

Rvg72
08-18-2009, 04:30 PM
I play super turbos on Full Tilt and after a total of almost 6000 sngs, my EV$ ROI (3.9%) is considerably different from my actual ROI (6.4%). Am I just running incredibly hot over 6000 sngs or is the EV$ calculation just not very accurate? Shouldn't my actual ROI and EV$ ROI converge as I play more tourneys? Anybody else have stats like this?

They should converge although 6000 still isn't a huge sample in terms of long term EV. It uses ICM to determine how much you hand should be worth whenever anyone goes all-in and then determines what your hand is worth after the allin. The difference is the luck / unluck amount applied to the tourney winnings.

Roy