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View Full Version : AllinEV-calculation mistake in multiwaypots



smartmike
11-12-2011, 02:00 PM
I found out that HM makes a mistake when calculating the allinEV in PLO-multiwaypots, I give an example:
3players: Hero:100$ B:200$ C:200$. Hero is allin preflop (lets say preflop all 3 players have the same chance to win, 33.3% each, in HU situation 50% each) B and C both called. B hits a royal flush at the flop, bets, C folds.
Now player B has 100% at the flop, and hero's EV is -100$(0% at the flop) cause HM calculates the EV at the point when the betting in the pot was finished, instead of calculating hero's EV preflop, where he put his money in, and should have an EV of +50$ (50% of 300$ minus the 100$ invested) cause HU-equity at the flop is 50%, (totally correct ofc. would be 33%/EV+-0$ cause it was a 3way-allin seen from hero's point, but that is obv impossible to calculate when HM doesn't know C's wholecards).
I guess it shouldn't be a big problem to tell HM to calculate the allinEV at the point when the player was allin, not at the point where all players went allin or the last player folded?!

Patvs
11-14-2011, 12:24 AM
It's not a mistake in the calculation.

Read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/manager-general/24059-ev-not-all-situations.html


The preflop EV is not being calculated because there are two postflop scenario's:
-player B and C go to showdown and we get to see both player's holecards.

-player B gets player C to fold (or vice versa). When this happens HoldemManager can't tell who actually had the best hand preflop. (it might be the player who folded postflop). Therefore no preflop EV (for player A) is used.

smartmike
11-14-2011, 12:22 PM
It's not a mistake in the calculation.

Read: http://forums.holdemmanager.com/manager-general/24059-ev-not-all-situations.html


The preflop EV is not being calculated because there are two postflop scenario's:
-player B and C go to showdown and we get to see both player's holecards.

-player B gets player C to fold (or vice versa). When this happens HoldemManager can't tell who actually had the best hand preflop. (it might be the player who folded postflop). Therefore no preflop EV (for player A) is used.

This argumentation is in my opinion def wrong.
If 3players preflop, hero allin pre, both the others allin on flop, noone folds his hand, HM still gives the EV on flop for Hero, even if HM knows now the preflopEV of all players in the hand. Even uf the hand i s checked to showdown, hero's EV is either 0% or 100%, so it counts no EV at all, but hero was allin pre and all holecards are known.
And even if its possible that the player which folded his hand on flop had the better hand preflop than the player still in the hand, its more exact to calculate the preflopEV for hero than the flopEV, thats not only my opinion, but of a lot players I know and talked to about that problem...

Patvs
11-15-2011, 03:01 AM
If 3players preflop, hero allin pre, both the others allin on flop, noone folds his hand, HM still gives the EV on flop for Hero, even if HM knows now the preflopEV of all players in the hand.


Correct. HoldemManager in this scenario is able to calculate the correct preflop allin EV for all three players, but deliberately doesn't.

Technically when one of the players fold, you can do a HU-equity at the flop of 50%, or you could do 33% because it was a 3way-allin seen from the hero. But both (50% and 30%) are inaccurate not knowing the actual holecards of the player that folded.
So we just don't take the preflop allin into account when one of the postflop players folds.

Next, making the calculation when you can (when there is a three-player showdown), and not doing it when you can't (when there is a two-player showdown) will result in biased longterm results.

Therefore we ignore the preflop allin in ALL situations, resulting in the MOST accurate longterm results.