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View Full Version : SnG $EV adjusted graph, how is it generated?



LotteryGuy
07-27-2009, 07:51 PM
Hello,

I'd like to know the exact procedure used to generate the $EV adjusted graph from tournament results.

I'd like to know it because two good sit and go player's results show that their $EV adjusted winnings are negative, and I am just wondering if that is all right.

Has any sit'n go player a graph that would show luck adjusted graph being above 0?

I am using beta 20.

fozzy71
07-27-2009, 08:40 PM
I will forward this to the developer for a reply.

Rvg72
07-28-2009, 06:55 PM
Hello,

I'd like to know the exact procedure used to generate the $EV adjusted graph from tournament results.

I'd like to know it because two good sit and go player's results show that their $EV adjusted winnings are negative, and I am just wondering if that is all right.

Has any sit'n go player a graph that would show luck adjusted graph being above 0?

I am using beta 20.

Most of the graphs I've seen show the EV pretty close to the actual for large samples. We use ICM for each all-in situation so it should be completely accurate.

Roy

LotteryGuy
07-28-2009, 09:55 PM
I asked a complete description of the procedure, could you please answer my question?

fozzy71
07-29-2009, 08:20 AM
Explaining the Independent Chip Model (ICM) (http://www.pokerjunkie.com/icm-explaining-the-independent-chip-model)

LotteryGuy
07-30-2009, 05:25 AM
I am getting tired of asking the same question again and again...

How is the ICM formula exactly used in HEM to get the luck adjusted winnings graph?

An example answer would look like this:

1. Do this
2. Do that
3. Add a little bit of this
4. We have the luck adjusted winnings graph

Rvg72
07-30-2009, 12:55 PM
Step 1) Determine expected value in ICM after allin
Step 2) Determine actual value in ICM after allin
Step 3) Add up all these situations
Step 4) The combined difference is the adjustment to your winnings amount for the $EV line

LotteryGuy
07-30-2009, 01:15 PM
Thank you, this answered my question.

virtueed
09-08-2009, 10:34 AM
Payouts
1 $40.14
2 $24.08
3 $16.05

Start EV End EV Diff Player
$33.75 $27.35 ($6.39) Villain
$30.47 $36.87 $6.39 Hero

SNG EV analysis
Board -
Prizes $40.14 $24.08 $16.05

EV Result Luck Hand Player
$35.79 $27.35 ($8.43) 8c8d Villain
$28.43 $36.87 $8.43 Ah8h Hero

hand order 8c8d > Ah8h probability 64.6694%
0 stack 13500, icm ev $40.14
1 stack 0, icm ev $24.08

hand order Ah8h > 8c8d probability 32.7752%
0 stack 2750, icm ev $27.35
1 stack 10750, icm ev $36.87

hand order 8c8d = Ah8h probability 2.5554%
0 stack 8125, icm ev $33.75
1 stack 5375, icm ev $30.47

I was analyzing the above hand, and I found that in this situation there's no way to have an EV$ diff >0, even with AA vs A7 (92% vs 8%) the EV$ diff is around -1$. So from the EV$ adjustment point of view there isn't any correct play!

I think that my play is correct most of the time in this situation, making this an +EV shove (Do you agree?). That said, I don't understand how the EV$ Adjustment graph in the long run could match the winnings!!! I think they will continue to diverge having winnings greater than EV$ adjustment. What am I missing?

Thank you!