jordyun
07-21-2009, 07:48 PM
I mainly play DON and I just figured out how $EV won works. However I don't really think that value represents your luck or you can see your luck from that value. I'm really confused with the session I played yesterday:
70 games, I got 2 outer-ed 4 times (preflop, preflop, flop, flop all in), 1 outer-ed 1 time (flop), AA lost to J2 (preflop), and countless times that my overpair all in on the flop and lost to top pair who pairs his kicker on the turn. Not to mention my KK always loses to Ax. On the other end, I was rarely all in with the worse hand and sucked out. I definitely think that today is a bad day. But I manage to have 6% ROI, +52 profit. And surprisingly, I found that it shows my luck adjusted winnings is 49. WTF? I'm so unlucky the whole session, but I'm still considered lucky and win more than I am expected to win???
As a winning player in the level I play, I think that number almost always under-estimates a winning player's winning. For example in the session that I run like god, win 100+ dollars, it says I win 40 more than expected. Ok this is fine, but in the sessions that I run bad, since I can manage to lose only a little, say -20, it will show that the expected value is 0, that I only lose 20 dollars because of bad luck. But if you sum up the good days and bad days, then it doesn't make sense. After 600 games my lines always show that I won more than I expected. This actually isn't accurate at all.
As a mathematics genius I tried to see where the offset occurs. I'm not quite sure that I'm correct but here are a few points that I found:
1.Say 6 people left, you are the chip leader, and sitting on BB. A short stack with 2BB shove, fold to you, and you call with any trash based on pot odds. If you win, you're considered "lucky" and the "$EV won" is low. In luck-adjusted-winnings it looks like you're running hot but It really doesn't matter much whether you win this hand or not. And calling is definitely a +EV move, but it makes your stat showing that you are lucky in the long run.
2.6 handed too, the blind is huge, and there's one chip leader when all others are short. You're one of the short stack and shove UTG with a marginal hand because the next hand you'll go on the blind and get crippled. And the $EV won doesn't make sense again in this case, whether you won or not. The ICM model still thinks that you have good equity based on the chips counts. But the blind is too huge that you're actually the most dangerous one so you have to move. Again this is a +EV move but once again it makes you look like a luckbox when you win.
3.You were the chip leader and you lost a 70-30% favor and was crippled. Then you won a 30-70% underdog to come back and win. This is only average luck. But in ICM model it shows that you are lucky.
4.Sometimes you won without any all in showdowns. And I'm not sure what $EV win will be, but I know it will be a ridiculous number which either makes you look very lucky or very unlucky.
To sum up, I believe the ICM models are distorted when the blinds are huge. I don't have a solution/suggestion for this, but I do think we can use other values to represent luck at the same time as well. I suggest the following ones:
1.Normalized expectation vs Real Winning
Average of all the expectation when you all in. And see how many pots did you really win. For example, you are all in 5 times with 80%, 50%, 50%, 50% 40% respectively. Then the averaged expectation shows 54%. And if you won 3 of them, you are actually 3/5=60% and is considered lucky. This value can also help you to see if you're all in with the best hand or not.
2.Chips expectation vs Real Winning
Similar to the above, but weighted with chips. So it shows that in all all-in confrontations, how many chips are you expected to win. And of course we can compare this with the actual chips that you win. This is very close to the cEV which is already in the tool, but I don't know why you abandoned this and choose $EV in tourneys calculation. I of course know they're different. But this value is more important to me as it reflects the luck the most.
The above numbers may only be used for HERO. In another word, if two others are all in then it doesn't count. (Well I don't know how to define it if we want to include it. There may be some ways to do it too.)
And the $EV could be kept.
I wanna know how you guys feel about this. If it makes sense then I will post this to http://holdemmanager.uservoice.com/ , thanks.
Jordyun
70 games, I got 2 outer-ed 4 times (preflop, preflop, flop, flop all in), 1 outer-ed 1 time (flop), AA lost to J2 (preflop), and countless times that my overpair all in on the flop and lost to top pair who pairs his kicker on the turn. Not to mention my KK always loses to Ax. On the other end, I was rarely all in with the worse hand and sucked out. I definitely think that today is a bad day. But I manage to have 6% ROI, +52 profit. And surprisingly, I found that it shows my luck adjusted winnings is 49. WTF? I'm so unlucky the whole session, but I'm still considered lucky and win more than I am expected to win???
As a winning player in the level I play, I think that number almost always under-estimates a winning player's winning. For example in the session that I run like god, win 100+ dollars, it says I win 40 more than expected. Ok this is fine, but in the sessions that I run bad, since I can manage to lose only a little, say -20, it will show that the expected value is 0, that I only lose 20 dollars because of bad luck. But if you sum up the good days and bad days, then it doesn't make sense. After 600 games my lines always show that I won more than I expected. This actually isn't accurate at all.
As a mathematics genius I tried to see where the offset occurs. I'm not quite sure that I'm correct but here are a few points that I found:
1.Say 6 people left, you are the chip leader, and sitting on BB. A short stack with 2BB shove, fold to you, and you call with any trash based on pot odds. If you win, you're considered "lucky" and the "$EV won" is low. In luck-adjusted-winnings it looks like you're running hot but It really doesn't matter much whether you win this hand or not. And calling is definitely a +EV move, but it makes your stat showing that you are lucky in the long run.
2.6 handed too, the blind is huge, and there's one chip leader when all others are short. You're one of the short stack and shove UTG with a marginal hand because the next hand you'll go on the blind and get crippled. And the $EV won doesn't make sense again in this case, whether you won or not. The ICM model still thinks that you have good equity based on the chips counts. But the blind is too huge that you're actually the most dangerous one so you have to move. Again this is a +EV move but once again it makes you look like a luckbox when you win.
3.You were the chip leader and you lost a 70-30% favor and was crippled. Then you won a 30-70% underdog to come back and win. This is only average luck. But in ICM model it shows that you are lucky.
4.Sometimes you won without any all in showdowns. And I'm not sure what $EV win will be, but I know it will be a ridiculous number which either makes you look very lucky or very unlucky.
To sum up, I believe the ICM models are distorted when the blinds are huge. I don't have a solution/suggestion for this, but I do think we can use other values to represent luck at the same time as well. I suggest the following ones:
1.Normalized expectation vs Real Winning
Average of all the expectation when you all in. And see how many pots did you really win. For example, you are all in 5 times with 80%, 50%, 50%, 50% 40% respectively. Then the averaged expectation shows 54%. And if you won 3 of them, you are actually 3/5=60% and is considered lucky. This value can also help you to see if you're all in with the best hand or not.
2.Chips expectation vs Real Winning
Similar to the above, but weighted with chips. So it shows that in all all-in confrontations, how many chips are you expected to win. And of course we can compare this with the actual chips that you win. This is very close to the cEV which is already in the tool, but I don't know why you abandoned this and choose $EV in tourneys calculation. I of course know they're different. But this value is more important to me as it reflects the luck the most.
The above numbers may only be used for HERO. In another word, if two others are all in then it doesn't count. (Well I don't know how to define it if we want to include it. There may be some ways to do it too.)
And the $EV could be kept.
I wanna know how you guys feel about this. If it makes sense then I will post this to http://holdemmanager.uservoice.com/ , thanks.
Jordyun