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lonely_squirrel
07-12-2009, 08:32 AM
I have a hand where the allin equity I don't think can be right. It's another all-in on one street, and then a bet-fold on a later street. I think that there are 2 problems here, one being known, but I'm not sure about the second.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players -

MP: $73.00
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $20.35

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 5h Ad Ah 3h
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, BTN raises to $8, 2 folds, MP calls $7.50, Hero raises to $32.75, BTN calls $12.35 all in, MP calls $24.75

Flop: ($86.60) Kh Jh Tc (3 players - 1 is all in)
MP checks, Hero bets $17.25 all in, MP folds

Turn: ($86.60) 4h (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: ($86.60) 5s (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: $86.60
Hero shows 5h Ad Ah 3h (a flush, Ace high)
BTN shows 7c Ks 6s Kc (three of a kind, Kings)
Hero wins $24.80
Hero wins $58.80
(Rake: $3.00)

The hands table shows that I won $50.85 on the hand, and my EV diff is $-53.56.

The first issue is that it's using the equity on the turn to compute the EV equity, even though all the money went in on the flop. I understand this is a known issue since the last action's on the flop.

The second issue is that I can't see how $-53.56 is correct if even you count my equity on the flop. It's giving my overall EV for the hand as negative (-2.71) -- the difference is greater than the actual outcome. But even if you count my hand as AI on the flop, my opponent has no stack left so it's not possible that I lose any money by going all in against him. My flop bet cannot be negative expectaion.

I thought if you wanted to count my equity on the flop when I'm a 70/30 dog, it would be to take 30% of the pot size. And .30*86.60 = 25.98. The actual outcome of 50.85 would make the difference -24.87.

I will email the raw hand history to the address in the other threads.

Thanks,
Elizabeth

lonely_squirrel
07-12-2009, 08:38 AM
(This is version 1.09 beta 14a).