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View Full Version : Exactly how does the Adjusted Luck Winnings calc work?



bad_egg
06-25-2009, 10:39 PM
Can someone post or point me to a summary of the calculations that are done for the Adjusted Luck Winnings value for tournaments? Is it done by standard ICM EV calculations, or has Holdem Manager implemented something different?

I don't know if other people are experiencing problems with the calculations, and maybe I'm just on an extremely bad streak, but I'm getting a difference of about 150 buy-ins bad luck over a stretch of 4000 SNGs. I don't know what the likelihood of that would be, but I'm guessing low. The plots don't even look like they have any intention of converging, almost a straight line in either direction.

Thank you.

netsrak
06-26-2009, 03:17 AM
Maybe you find it here?: http://208.109.95.123/forum/showthread.php?t=3595

I haven't checked so please come back if it doesn't help.

bad_egg
06-26-2009, 02:13 PM
I posted this in the wrong forum I believe, but reposting in this thread----

Can someone post or point me to a summary of the calculations that are done for the Luck Adjusted Winnings value for tournaments? Is it done by standard ICM EV calculations, or has Holdem Manager implemented something different? Does it look at only all-in situations preflop, or all-in preflop, flop, and turn? Heads-up only matchups, or multiplayer? Or does it do more than just all-in situations?

I don't know if other people are experiencing problems with the calculations, and maybe I'm just on an extremely bad streak, but I'm getting a difference of about 150 buy-ins bad luck over a stretch of 4000 SNGs (not quite 150 buy-ins down YET thank god, but the difference between expected and results). I don't know what the exact likelihood of that would be, but I'm guessing low. The plots don't even look like they have any intention of converging, almost a straight line in either direction... the plots theoretically converge, no?

Thank you.

fozzy71
06-26-2009, 02:25 PM
I will forward this to the developer for a reply.

Mike chops
06-26-2009, 02:35 PM
If you replay a hand and click the ICM button, it should bring up a window explaining the calculations.

Mike chops
06-26-2009, 02:46 PM
Please don't double post.

bad_egg
06-26-2009, 03:07 PM
If you replay a hand and click the ICM button, it should bring up a window explaining the calculations.

I don't think I was clear, I mean the calculations in the Tourney Results tab. I understand ICM. I just want to know whether I can rely on HM's charts --- Dollars vs. Tourneys with Results and Luck Adjusted Results plotted ( or whether there may be a flaw in the calculations.

First--- is it just all-in situations? or does HM try to incorporate the unluckiness of someone hitting their 4 outs on the river and you paying them off?