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Dropball
09-15-2011, 03:21 PM
Hi,

I've been trying to understand the ICM calculations for omaha in the replayer for a while now, but I'm just not convinced they are working correctly. Could you please explain to me how in this example ( and I have many more like it ), how the ICM calculator came up with these numbers. Here's the hand as it played out ( this is on pokerstars btw ):

Seat 2: dianed44 (9905 in chips)
Seat 7: Dropball (2300 in chips)
Seat 8: FancyGamer (1295 in chips)
Seat 9: heeder (1500 in chips)
dianed44: posts small blind 150
Dropball: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Dropball [As Ad 2s Jc]
FancyGamer: folds
heeder: folds
dianed44: raises 300 to 600
Dropball: raises 1200 to 1800
dianed44: calls 1200
*** FLOP *** [Qc Td 6h]
dianed44: bets 600
Dropball: calls 500 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (100) returned to dianed44
*** TURN *** [Qc Td 6h] [7s]
*** RIVER *** [Qc Td 6h 7s] [9s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dianed44: shows [9h 5d 7h 4d] (two pair, Nines and Sevens)
Dropball: shows [As Ad 2s Jc] (a pair of Aces)
dianed44 collected 4600 from pot
Dropball finished the tournament in 4th place
Dropball [observer] said, "sure"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4600 | Rake 0
Board [Qc Td 6h 7s 9s]
Seat 2: dianed44 (small blind) showed [9h 5d 7h 4d] and won (4600) with two pair, Nines and Sevens
Seat 7: Dropball (big blind) showed [As Ad 2s Jc] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: FancyGamer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: heeder (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Now according the replayer itself and verified elsewhere, the AA hand was a 56-44 favourite preflop and a 62-38 favourite when the rest of the money went in. Incidentally the AA hand was still a 52.5-47.5 fav on the turn. However, the ICM calculator shows something completely different and I just don't understand how's getting these numbers:

Payouts
1 $15.00
2 $9.00
3 $6.00

Start EV End EV Diff Player
$12.64 $13.82 $1.19 dianed44
$7.15 $0.00 ($7.15) Dropball
$4.80 $7.94 $3.14 FancyGamer
$5.41 $8.24 $2.83 heeder

SNG EV analysis

Board - QcTd6h

Prizes $15.00 $9.00 $6.00

EV Result Luck Hand Player

$12.65 $11.37 ($1.28) 9h5d7h4d dianed44
$4.49 $9.41 $4.92 AsAd2sJc Dropball
$6.20 $4.30 ($1.90) FancyGamer
$6.65 $4.91 ($1.74) heeder

hand order 9h5d7h4d > AsAd2sJc probability 52.3171%
0 stack 12205, icm ev $13.82
1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00
2 stack 1295, icm ev $7.94
3 stack 1500, icm ev $8.24

hand order AsAd2sJc > 9h5d7h4d probability 47.6829%
0 stack 7605, icm ev $11.37
1 stack 4600, icm ev $9.41
2 stack 1295, icm ev $4.30
3 stack 1500, icm ev $4.91

hand order 9h5d7h4d = AsAd2sJc probability 0.0000%
0 stack 9905, icm ev $12.64
1 stack 2300, icm ev $7.15
2 stack 1295, icm ev $4.80
3 stack 1500, icm ev $5.41

At what point was the 9574 hand a 52-48 favourite?

Is this correct?

Thanks,
Dropball

Patvs
09-15-2011, 09:57 PM
We have a PLO EV bug. This will be fixed in the next update.
And will require you to reimport the hands into a new database.