VurtAddicted
08-11-2011, 11:53 AM
Hi there,
imho EV winnings don't work very well when I want to consider if I am in a lucky or unlucky moment.
This is true mostly in deep stack cash games for two reasons:
1- "Luck" doesn't care of money, it's just a question of cards. How much money I put into a pot has nothing to do with luck, it's my own decision.
2- EV winnings doesn't consider river game, which is very important in deep cash game.
Let me be more clear with 2 examples:
1) If I play 12 allin hands like the following:
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = EV -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = EV -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = EV -60
SUM = EV + 229,5$
Have I been lucky? From the EV it seems like I've been VERY lucky, but I actually wasn't. I just put a lot of money when I was far ahead and just a few when I was in a coin flip.
Actually I won 9 times a 95.5/4.5 while I lost 3 times a 60/40, so I was VERY UNLUCKY.
2) let's say I have a hand which is 95.5% ahead on the turn, we don't go allin, but then the opponent hits his/her 4.5% on the river, we go allin and I lose 1000$. I was VERY unlucky, but this isn't considered in EV winnings/losses.
So here comes my proposal: the luck factor.
The luck factor should be:
- if you win the hand: 100 – equity%
- if you lose the hand: -equity%
Where equity% is either the allin equity or the turn equity if the hand went to the river.
So, in my first example the result would be:
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = LF -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = LF -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = LF -60
Global Luck Factor = -139.5
In our second example we had a -95.5 luck factor.
It’s a pure number, doesn’t care about money, so I think it’s much better to understand if I am in a lucky or unlucky moment.
imho EV winnings don't work very well when I want to consider if I am in a lucky or unlucky moment.
This is true mostly in deep stack cash games for two reasons:
1- "Luck" doesn't care of money, it's just a question of cards. How much money I put into a pot has nothing to do with luck, it's my own decision.
2- EV winnings doesn't consider river game, which is very important in deep cash game.
Let me be more clear with 2 examples:
1) If I play 12 allin hands like the following:
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = EV +45.5
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = EV -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = EV -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = EV -60
SUM = EV + 229,5$
Have I been lucky? From the EV it seems like I've been VERY lucky, but I actually wasn't. I just put a lot of money when I was far ahead and just a few when I was in a coin flip.
Actually I won 9 times a 95.5/4.5 while I lost 3 times a 60/40, so I was VERY UNLUCKY.
2) let's say I have a hand which is 95.5% ahead on the turn, we don't go allin, but then the opponent hits his/her 4.5% on the river, we go allin and I lose 1000$. I was VERY unlucky, but this isn't considered in EV winnings/losses.
So here comes my proposal: the luck factor.
The luck factor should be:
- if you win the hand: 100 – equity%
- if you lose the hand: -equity%
Where equity% is either the allin equity or the turn equity if the hand went to the river.
So, in my first example the result would be:
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 1000$, EV 95.5%, won = LF +4.5
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = LF -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = LF -60
Pot 100$, EV 60%, lost = LF -60
Global Luck Factor = -139.5
In our second example we had a -95.5 luck factor.
It’s a pure number, doesn’t care about money, so I think it’s much better to understand if I am in a lucky or unlucky moment.