All in EV analysis

[NZfisherman]

I am a cash game player on pokerstars. After starting out with some success working out the kinks in my game, I beleive I have an edge and when things seem to run average I was winning ( especially with optimal table selection ) However my last 100k hands I have come to expect to win maybe 40% flips , get outdrawn far more often than I should in all types of betting situations, not just when all in at any stage pre river, and also have more cooler hands against me than for ( eg, nut flush vs 2nd nut flush, or AA vs KK all in pre ) Now im not a deluded fish but after feeling like I have been generally been running so terrible for such a large stretch of hands and a now downward trending graph has left me wondering can I actually beat the game ( once this extreme variance resolves or reduces ) . Or do I really not have the edge I think I have

My question is . How accurate is all in EV adjusted winnings in calculating whether I should be winning or not . In the last 100k hands im losing about 30k which at the stakes I have been mostly playing ( 2/4 .... 3/6 ... 5/10 ) would be about 100 buyins at mostly 50bb max 6 player tables . So ruffly one buy in per thousand hands.

My all in EV adjusted gap has been growing wider and wider as the hands progressed and according to it I should only be losing 20k instead of 30k (60-70 buy ins). Although this is a massive amount of difference and obviously shows ive run terrible I dont beleive it accounts for every instance of running bad you can have in a cash game, I beleive ive been kicked in the teeth over this large stretch of hands and should atleast be making a small profit, Instead im down 30k and all in EV adjusted says I should be down 20k . Is it possible that if I had totally average variance across all types of hand situations that I should actually be winning ??? Or is it true that I really should be down 20k . In which case I need to drastically alter my game or just give up . Although I dont beleive I am a losing player my recent results have created a large element of doubt.

Any feedback is welcome and appreciated

[Patvs]

All-in EV had a bug in 1.11.05 to up 1.11.05d. This should affect all november 10 - december 20 (estimate) hands.

It's fixed in 1.11.05e (and it didn't occur in older HoldemManager versions)
So if you imported hands in a version that had this bug, create a new empty database in 1.11.05e and reimport all the hands.

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What's your winrate and EV adjusted winrate the last 100.000 hands?
If your EV adjusted winrate is between -5 to 0, you could still be playing a winning style, but the coolers (I hate saying "bad luck", or "losing streak") are fully responsible for your downswing.

HoldemManager only calculates "All-in EV", so it doesn't take into account:
coolers (KK vs AA)
or when you commit when you're already outdrawn. (for example committing 80% of your stack with the best hand against a fish who's chasing his draw, then getting allin for your final 20% on the turn (or river) after the opponent has hit his draw.

These type of hands won't be visible in the All-in EV graph. It would just appear you're playing really bad (since you get the money in with the worst hand)

[NZfisherman]

Hey thanks allot for posting back. Ive rerun my hands through a fresh database and my winrate in big bets is -2.8 and all in EV adjusted is -2.0. I beleive I should be carving atleast a small winrate and am continuously working on possible leaks. But the variance is eating away my bankroll. How likely is it that over the last 100k hands Im having more losing sessions than winning ones and my graph has a downward trend that I'm still actually a winning player ? suffering an extremely long and heart wrenching downswing where the coolers and drawouts seem to be the constant expectation during the session.

I manage tilt quite well under the circumstances however I will occasionally drop my game a little for a short time but the fact that I am always on the hunt for the loosest and most clueless donks I can find, Im positive I should still have an edge. But the length and severity of this swing is killing my roll and my confidence. Is there anything else I need to know, or check/evaluate. I want to succeed at this game ive put in some hard yards so am willing to hear all opinions

Cheers

[Patvs]

There's not a lot you can do.

Move down a stake, if it's eating away your bankroll too much and the losses affect your confidence.

Analyse all the big pot hands you lost. (are they really coolers, or could you have lost less had you played the hand differently)
And analyse the medium pot sized hands you won with showdown. (could you extract more value playing the hand differently)