SNG EV diff Problem
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  1. #1
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Default SNG EV diff Problem

    hi.there is a problem w/ the EV Diff for STTs.i sent it to your support something like 2months ago but i got a standard reply that sent me to the EV calculation video.

    i'll put hear 3 hands w/ +ev decisions that are marked as -ev :

    [IMG=http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/2129/errorhm.th.jpg][/IMG]

    Uploaded with ImageShack.us



    [IMG=http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/4780/errorhm2.th.jpg][/IMG]

    Uploaded with ImageShack.us




    Uploaded with ImageShack.us

    Am I missing somthing?

  2. #2
    HM Support Patvs's Avatar
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    Feb 2009
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    Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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    33,523

    Default

    We had a big EV bug in 1.11.05-1.11.05d.

    Update to http://www.holdemmanager.com/Downloa...1.11.05e-1.exe
    Create a new database--> reimport all your hands.
    ----



    However I think most of your examples are not effected by the EV bug.
    77 vs 66 (77 = 75% fav)
    KK vs 77 (KK = 80% fav)
    KK vs straight-draw (KK = 66% fav)

    It's clear it's a +EV decision to end up allin with the favorite hand.
    But since you actually win the hand it will always result in a negative EV Diff. (losing the hand would result in an even bigger positive EV Diff)

    Why?
    Suppose startstack 1000 chips. 10 players. Buyin $10.
    There are 4 players left. Top 3 in the money
    Player A - 3000 chips - KK
    Player B - 3500 chips - 77
    Player C - 2000 chips
    Player D - 1500 chips


    Two players A & B go allin with KK vs 77.
    Now three scenario's can happen:
    -1 (80.30%) KK wins
    -2 (19.35%) 77 wins
    -3 (0.35%) the hand results in a splitpot!

    If -1 occurs, player A will have a negative EV Diff for that hand, based on the independent chip model and the fact that he is eliminated 19.35% of the time here in 4th place.
    If -2 occurs, player B will have a negative EV Diff, and player A will have a huge positive EV Diff (since 80.3% of the time he would end up in the money with a big chiplead)

    If -3 (or -2!) occurs it's a disaster for player C & D not even involved in the hand!
    And they will get a positive EV Diff, since 19.35% player C & D would automatically be in the money. And if player A wins, player D will no longer be the shortstack.

    etc.


    So it's irrelevant someone is a 80% favorite (and ends up winning the hand).
    Other elements: based on stacksizes, the chance to lose--> and what exactly happens if you lose all matter and affect the EV Diff.
    Last edited by Patvs; 01-17-2011 at 12:11 AM.
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