CO, BTN, Steal % success

[juandadi]

So i was just looking at my stats and im wondering what success% time one must be at to make the steal profitable... is it anything over 50%?
my stats are as followed
this is for 9m sngs btw

bb100 From CO is 23% and 59% succesful
bb100 from btn is 36% and 55% succesful

bb200 CO 33% steal, 59% success
bb200 btn 48% , 57% success


thanks

[Patvs]

It depends how much you raise.
If you minraise as a steal (in CO en BTN), and are 30%+ successful you can do it profitable ALL the time.

But if your standard raise is a 4x BB raise, you success rate must be 75%+ for it to be profitable.

[juandadi]

It depends how much you raise.
If you minraise as a steal (in CO en BTN), and are 30%+ successful you can do it profitable ALL the time.

But if your standard raise is a 4x BB raise, you success rate must be 75%+ for it to be profitable.

what if im raising 2.1-2.9X the bb? is that the same as min raising?

and how did you come up with 30% and 75%?

thanks!

also, is this somewhere in your manual or FAQ?

[Patvs]

Example: you steal on the BUTTON with a crap hand. TABLE with NO ANTE
Successful steal = you win the blinds
Unsuccessful steal = one of the blinds 3bets, where you FOLD. (so we won't even look at scenario's where they CALL your raise and you have position, or they 3bet and you have a monster hand, or you raise a good hand and you WANT to be called)


You minraise 2x BB. You risk 2BB to win 1.5BB
If your opponents 3bet 33% of the time, you'll loose 2BB 1/3 of the time, you'll win 3BB (2 x 1.5) 2/3 of the time so it's profitable.
Breakeven point: (x * 2) = (100-x * 1.5) x = ~ 43% (so if they have a >57% fold to steal stat, this steal is profitable)

You raise 5x BB. You risk 5BB to win 1.5BB
If you opponents 3bet 33% of the time, you'll loose 5BB 1/3 of the time, you'll win 3BB (2 x 1.5) 2/3 of the time so it's NOT profitable.
Breakeven point: (x * 5) = (100-x * 1.5) x = ~ 23% (so if they have a >77% fold to steal stat, this steal is profitable)

This isn't in our manual/FAQ......Read The Theory of Poker (David Sklansky) or The Mathematics of Poker (Bill Chen)

[El Helado]

Would be cool since it would work for fixed limit