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  1. #1
    Junior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    Default EV Calculation mistake?

    75$ Super Turbo SNG on Full Tilt.

    My only allin was with a half stack, and i was an underdog, it was a 3 way allin, my cards were A8s against an A9o and J9s.

    I lost the hand, finished out of the money, and HM tells me that i should won $122.

    How is it possible? I had the weaker hand, and this was the only allin situation i took part.

    The situation was a big -EV for me i think...

    I attach the hand and the ICM calculation.

    http://yfrog.com/j4handfj

    Payouts
    1 $315.00
    2 $189.00
    3 $126.00

    Start EV End EV Diff Player
    $55.22 $0.00 ($55.22) gr24
    $55.22 $0.00 ($55.22) PetesNX
    $124.70 $155.04 $30.34 The Jshock Show
    $222.04 $259.39 $37.34 RealFilHelmuth
    $102.25 $120.07 $17.82 Everlast Air
    $70.57 $95.50 $24.93 Nikamal

    SNG EV analysis

    Board -

    Prizes $315.00 $189.00 $126.00



    EV Result Luck Hand Player

    $61.26 $0.00 ($61.26) Ah9d gr24

    $130.83 $0.00 ($130.83) Ac8c PetesNX

    $140.96 $155.04 $14.08 The Jshock Show

    $107.33 $259.39 $152.06 Js9s RealFilHelmuth

    $105.94 $120.07 $14.12 Everlast Air

    $83.68 $95.50 $11.82 Nikamal



    hand order Ah9d > Ac8c > Js9s probability 24.9523%

    0 stack 590, icm ev $145.22

    1 stack 1100, icm ev $206.25

    2 stack 465, icm ev $122.58

    3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    4 stack 310, icm ev $87.61

    5 stack 235, icm ev $68.34



    hand order Ah9d > Js9s > Ac8c probability 10.3234%

    0 stack 590, icm ev $145.22

    1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    2 stack 465, icm ev $122.58

    3 stack 1100, icm ev $206.25

    4 stack 310, icm ev $87.61

    5 stack 235, icm ev $68.34



    hand order Ac8c > Ah9d > Js9s probability 18.0472%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

    2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

    3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

    5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



    hand order Ac8c > Js9s > Ah9d probability 3.7274%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

    2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

    3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

    5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



    hand order Js9s > Ah9d > Ac8c probability 17.2607%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

    3 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

    4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

    5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



    hand order Js9s > Ac8c > Ah9d probability 8.7052%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

    3 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

    4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

    5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



    hand order Ah9d = Ac8c > Js9s probability 9.2976%

    0 stack 295, icm ev $92.29

    1 stack 1395, icm ev $234.14

    2 stack 465, icm ev $131.74

    3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    4 stack 310, icm ev $96.27

    5 stack 235, icm ev $75.56



    hand order Ah9d = Js9s > Ac8c probability 1.2220%

    0 stack 295, icm ev $92.29

    1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    2 stack 465, icm ev $131.74

    3 stack 1395, icm ev $234.14

    4 stack 310, icm ev $96.27

    5 stack 235, icm ev $75.56



    hand order Ac8c = Js9s > Ah9d probability 0.0000%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 845, icm ev $178.60

    2 stack 465, icm ev $120.45

    3 stack 845, icm ev $178.60

    4 stack 310, icm ev $85.64

    5 stack 235, icm ev $66.71



    hand order Ah9d > Ac8c = Js9s probability 0.1220%

    0 stack 590, icm ev $131.90

    1 stack 550, icm ev $125.15

    2 stack 465, icm ev $109.71

    3 stack 550, icm ev $125.15

    4 stack 310, icm ev $77.66

    5 stack 235, icm ev $60.43



    hand order Ac8c > Ah9d = Js9s probability 0.1866%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

    2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

    3 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

    5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



    hand order Js9s > Ah9d = Ac8c probability 5.8563%

    0 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    1 stack 0, icm ev $0.00

    2 stack 465, icm ev $155.04

    3 stack 1690, icm ev $259.39

    4 stack 310, icm ev $120.07

    5 stack 235, icm ev $95.50



    hand order Ah9d = Ac8c = Js9s probability 0.2993%

    0 stack 196.66666666666666666666666667, icm ev $53.28

    1 stack 746.66666666666666666666666667, icm ev $159.66

    2 stack 465, icm ev $113.80

    3 stack 746.66666666666666666666666667, icm ev $159.66

    4 stack 310, icm ev $80.74

    5 stack 235, icm ev $62.86
    The Hand history:

    ***** Hand History for Game 16070036573 ***** (Full Tilt)
    Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, November 16, 02:39:58 ET 2009
    Table 70 5 Sit Go (Super Turbo) (118146664) Table 1 (Real Money)
    Seat 3 is the button
    Seat 1: gr24 ( $180.00 USD )
    Seat 2: PetesNX ( $180.00 USD )
    Seat 3: The Jshock Show ( $465.00 USD )
    Seat 4: RealFilHelmuth ( $1280.00 USD )
    Seat 6: Everlast Air ( $360.00 USD )
    Seat 9: Nikamal ( $235.00 USD )
    RealFilHelmuth posts small blind [$25.00 USD].
    Everlast Air posts big blind [$50.00 USD].
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to PetesNX [ Ac 8c ]
    Nikamal folds
    gr24 raises [$150.00 USD]
    PetesNX raises [$180.00 USD]
    The Jshock Show folds
    RealFilHelmuth calls [$155.00 USD]
    Everlast Air folds
    gr24 calls [$30.00 USD]
    PetesNX shows [Ac, 8c ]
    RealFilHelmuth shows [Js, 9s ]
    gr24 shows [Ah, 9d ]
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ Ks, 4d, 8h ]
    ** Dealing Turn ** [ 7d ]
    ** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]
    RealFilHelmuth wins $590.00 USD from main pot


  2. #2
    Graphics Guru fozzy71's Avatar
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    Default

    Read these threads for some examples and definitions.

    Why the adjusted Luck EV isn't accurate.

    SNG Luck Factor question
    Participate in the Beta release of the newest Hold'em Manager version: HM Cloud. Sign-up HERE.

    If you would like to leave some feedback to help us improve the quality of the solutions, and/or the support quality you received, you can do so here: Leave Feedback

  3. #3
    Junior Member
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    Default

    Thanks, i understand how EV calculation work.

    In my case, i won more EV$ than i should.

    My stack before the allin had a value of ~55$, my chance to win or tie was only 30%. Despite this, according to HM my $EV diff on this single hand is 130.83$, which is approximately my stack value, if i win the hand.
    As i didn't have 100%, just 30, i think the EV calculation is bad.

    http://yfrog.com/j542785340j

  4. #4
    Graphics Guru fozzy71's Avatar
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    Default

    I assure you it is accurate. I have forwarded this thread to the developer for a reply.
    Participate in the Beta release of the newest Hold'em Manager version: HM Cloud. Sign-up HERE.

    If you would like to leave some feedback to help us improve the quality of the solutions, and/or the support quality you received, you can do so here: Leave Feedback

  5. #5
    Holdem Manager Support & HUD Guru Mike chops's Avatar
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    Default

    Can you post the hand again but take it directly from the FTP hand history file. I'm not sure where the USDs come from but it won't import.

  6. #6
    Junior Member
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike chops View Post
    Can you post the hand again but take it directly from the FTP hand history file. I'm not sure where the USDs come from but it won't import.
    I attach the original HH file!

    Thanks for looking after!

  7. #7
    Holdem Manager Support & HUD Guru Mike chops's Avatar
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    Default

    I imported the hand. I don't see where hem says you should have won $120. Looking at the hands tab it shows an EV loss of $61.26.

    Your ev is affected by the results of all-in even if you are not involved. Generally it is better for you if a big stack knocks someone else out. Your overall ev loss was $55 for the tournament.

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