LUCK report or filter?

**Arizona Willie** · 09-28-2009, 07:03 PM

Are there any reports or filters to analyse your luck?

Today I had a terrible session playing .5/.10 NL on 2 tables on FT.
I kept getting hands like an Ace high flush and getting beaten by a full house.
Over and over and over and over. Every great hand I had was beaten. Lost $10 in about an hour.

I've NEVER NEVER NEVER had such a session before. It was like they were dealing their own cards. Anything they needed to beat me someone would pull out of their ass.

Need an A 10 to make an ace high straight? Sure of course someone had that in the hole. What's the odds of having both ends of a straight?
Wipe my ass with my trips.

Trouble is ... I don't know if it was just terrible luck or terrible playing. Likely the later I grant you. But it sure would be interesting if there was a way to analyse hands for luck ... either good or bad.

I know I'm not even what I would consider a good player but I've never played that badly and I think it was a great deal of bad luck on top of stupid playing ( not having enough sense to quit and get the hell out of there ).

I just took a look in HEM at the overall report on Cash Games / Reports tab and set the time filter for today only.

In 78 hands I lost $9.91 and it says my $(EV adjusted ) was -$9.04 and bb/100 was -127.05 and EV bb/100 was -115.90 so it looks like HEM thinks I should have lost $9.04 and I lost a bit more than that.

So is the extra loss due to dumazz play?

Probably I suppose. Is HEM saying that I had bad luck and that's the reason it thinks I should have lost $9.04 or is it saying I should have lost the $9.04 because of poor playing?

Seems I saw something once somewhere about analysing for luck but don't remember where.

**fozzy71** · 09-28-2009, 11:51 PM

Originally Posted by Arizona Willie

.......

In 78 hands I lost $9.91 and it says my $(EV adjusted ) was -$9.04 and bb/100 was -127.05 and EV bb/100 was -115.90 so it looks like HEM thinks I should have lost $9.04 and I lost a bit more than that.
........e.

You only lost 1 buy in. Granted it was <100 hands, but that doesnt come any where near a 'terrible session' ime. In fact <100 hands barely counts as a session for most players.

In 78 hands I lost $9.91 and it says my $(EV adjusted ) was -$9.04

You should have lost 0.85 less than you did, so you were a little bit unlucky, with respect to your All-In Expected Value.

**Arizona Willie** · 09-29-2009, 01:51 AM

The terrible part wasn't so much the amount $9.91(?) but the frequency of very good hands being beat again and again and again on both tables.

People pulling cards out of their ears it seemed. Being ungodly lucky.

Which raises the questions, again, is the EV in HEM a calculation of how much you should have won / lost if you played the hand perfectly? Or what?
How does it calculate what is < expected >? Does it rate the cards dealt to me against the cards dealt to the villains? How? Is how you played taken into consideration? Point given for 3 betting or taken away for folding against a steal instead of defending when you could have prevailed? Ignoring player action that is and just going by the cards.

Actually I lost over 2 buy-ins because I was buying in for $4 the min. Of course $10 is the max buy-in. When I started 6 max I started with the max buyins but soon realized I was better off with a min buyin. Seems to work better for me, dunno why. Not that anything is working so well that I'm planning on buying a new Cadillac with my winnings

But I'm learning ... like a donkey that needs a 2 X 4 across the ears ... but learning bit by bit.